DUBLIVE: An ozone hole larger than Australia would have opened up over the Arctic if we had continued to use CFC’s for the past three decades.
New 3D computer models reveal what the ozone layer in the stratosphere would have looked like had countries not agreed to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which restricted the production and use of ozone-depleting chemicals such as chlorine and bromine.
The models also reveal the current ozone hole above Antarctica would have grown 40 per cent larger by 2013 and UV radiation levels in the most densely populated regions of Australia and New Zealand would have increased by eight to 12 per cent.
Australia already has the highest death rate from skin cancers. Previous research has suggested these cancers would have increased worldwide by 15 per cent by 2030 without the international treaty and ensuing action.
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CFCs were widely used as refrigerants in air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers, as well as propellants in spray cans, styrofoam manufacturing and various medical products.
One of the study’s New Zealand authors, Richard McKenzie, said concern about ozone depletion started in the 1970s, but it was the appearance of a springtime ozone hole over Antarctica in 1980 that galvanised public attention about the environmental damage of these substances.
After the protocol was signed chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were at first replaced with hydrochlorofluorocarbons, which did less damage to the ozone layer. Now hydrofluorocarbons, such as propane, are generally used because they don’t contain any substances that affect the ozone.
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