WASHINGTON: The number of Central American children and families illegally crossing the southern border, particularly in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, is likely to be smaller this year than last, but large enough to overwhelm shelters and courts, new Border Patrol statistics and projections show.
There were 12,509 unaccompanied youths caught at the southern border during the first five months of the federal fiscal year that began in October, down 42% compared to the same time period last year, according to the latest Border Patrol figures. A total of 11,133 families were caught at the border during the same time period, 21% fewer than this time last year.
That means the Border Patrol is on pace to catch about 39,000 unaccompanied children and about 53,000 families on the southern border this fiscal year, according to Adam Isacson, a senior associate at the nonprofit Washington Office on Latin America. Isacson based his projection on past immigration patterns, which tend to increase March through July.
If the projections hold, it would represent a 43% decrease in unaccompanied children and an 23% decrease in families this year compared to last.
But even with the projected decline, the number of families crossing the border illegally would be more than triple the number in 2013, when 14,855 family members crossed.
More than half of the children and families still appear to be crossing through the Rio Grande Valley, which saw 17% fewer families compared to this time last year and nearly half as many children, the Border Patrol reported.
Border Patrol officers are on pace to apprehend far fewer Honduran children and families this fiscal year compared to last: 3,758 unaccompanied children 79% fewer and the lowest total since 2012 and 12,680 families, a 63% drop, according to WOLA predictions.
They are also expected to catch fewer Salvadoran children and families this year: 7,030 children, or 57% fewer than last year; 13,161 families, or 11% fewer than last year, according to WOLA.
Bryan Johnson, a New York-based lawyer who works with immigrant youth and families, said the decrease in Honduran immigrants caught crossing so far this fiscal year was likely due to the Obama administration speeding deportations from the U.S. and Mexico and encouraging Central American countries to crack down on illegal immigration.
“But I don’t think the conditions in those countries have changed to stop the push” for families and children to immigrate to the U.S., Johnson said, citing gang and cartel violence.
This summer in South Texas, he said, “I don’t think it’s going to be as high because of the administration’s efforts to stop it, but it’s still going to be substantial.”
