BANGKOK: Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is more upbeat about economic prospects in the second quarter, saying the economy could grow 4% if exports manage to eke out zero growth or move in a positive range during that period.
In his round-up of the government’s six-month performance, he said he believed exports to China and the EU would strongly recover in the second quarter, helping to shore up overall shipments for the period. First-quarter exports were estimated to contract by 4% due mainly to the bearish performance of major markets such as China, the EU and Japan.
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“I believe the economy will manage growth of 4% in the second quarter only if shipments can manage zero growth,” he said. Late last month, the Commerce Ministry reported exports fell for a second consecutive month in February, down 6.14% year-on-year to UScopy7.2 billion after January’s figures fell by 3.46% to copy7.2 billion.
The dip was attributed mainly to lower global oil and crop prices. Shipments of farm products fell by 12.5% year-on-year in February to $2.49 billion, particularly rubber, which declined 38.8%. Other major products including rice, sugar and canned and processed seafood also saw big declines in exports in February. Exports of industrial products including gold and oil fell by 3.7% to copy3.8 billion.
Gold exports plunged 66% as traders delayed shipments and shifted focus to imports, while oil shipments dipped 6.1% from February 2014. However, imports edged up 1.47% to copy6.8 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $390 million compared with a deficit of $457 million in January.
