PARIS: France’s economy is pulling out of the doldrums but not quickly enough to meet its European deficit-reduction commitments or claim significant progress in the battle to cut unemployment by 2017, an election year, a Reuters poll shows.
After growth of just 0.4 percent last year, gross domestic product is set to expand 1.0 percent in 2015, 1.4 percent in 2016 and 1.6 percent in 2017, according to the median forecast in the poll of 34 economists, conducted from April 16-21.
While slightly more upbeat than a January Reuters poll, the view of independent economists is that the government will continue its track record of failing to cut the public deficit as much as promised, even after multiple grace periods agreed with its euro zone partners.
The fiscal gap, which Paris promises will shrink to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2017, is forecast in the Reuters poll to fall by less, to 3.1 percent in that year – still topping the 3.0 percent that EU authorities consider the maximum manageable level.
The Reuters poll showed economists are nonetheless more optimistic about progress more generally on deficit reduction than they were in January. Median forecasts were for a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP this year and 3.4 in 2016 following a better than expected dent in the deficit in 2014.
The unemployment rate, ultra-sensitive for Socialist President Francois Hollande after he failed to honour promises to secure a fall by the end of 2013, is forecast to decline only very slowly, from 10.3 percent in 2014 to 10.2 percent this year, 10.1 percent in 2016, and then to 9.8 percent in 2017.
Hollande has suggested he will not even consider seeking a second term if he fails to impress on the jobs front.
It is not clear for now if he will have convincing results to show voters by the time any re-election campaign would start, prior to a ballot scheduled for May 2017.
