MEXICO: A first-of-its-kind study warns that the risk of flooding along the New York City and New Jersey shorelines has increased significantly in the past 1,000 years and that under a changing climate, the risk is likely to grow even more.
Researchers used proxy sea-level records and climate models to compare sea-level rise rates and storm surge heights in prehistoric and modern eras in the North Atlantic basin. They found that the combination of those two factors has greatly increased the possibility of major storms.
Storms that may have once occurred every 500 years could soon happen every 25 years or so, according to the study, which may have implications for other coastal regions.
Researchers also found that flood heights have increased 1.2 metres, mainly due to the rising sea level.
“Given that we are already committed to additional sea-level rise due to warming temperatures, we would expect that flood heights are likely to continue to climb in the future,” said Andra Reed, one of the researchers and a PhD candidate with the department of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University.Flooding from tropical cyclones will likely continue to worsen, Reed said.
The findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday by a team of researchers from five American universities, including well-known climate scientists Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State and Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Mann believes the study’s findings likely apply to other coastal regions — that’s what they want to pursue next.
“Given the significant interest in storm surges impacting New York City in the wake of (Hurricane) Sandy, it seemed appropriate to us to focus on this location first,” he said.
Sea-level rise is already having a huge impact, he said.
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