NEW DELHI: Global rating agency Fitch Ratings on Wednesday revised down its forecast for India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 7.5% from a previous estimate of 7.8%.
However, the agency expects the country to grow by 8% in the next fiscal year if reforms are implemented.
“India takes over as the fastest growing BRIC this year with 7.5 per cent GDP growth, accelerating to 8 per cent in 2016 driven by structural reforms and higher investment,” said Fitch in its Global Economic Outlook report.
While announcing a cut in key lending rate by 50bps on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also downgraded its outlook for India’s GDP growth to 7.4% in the current fiscal year.
Fitch said that the below-normal monsoon rainfall is likely to bring down the growth slightly lower. The country recorded a deficit of 14% in monsoon rainfall this year.
Due to El Nino effect, about 55% country witnessed normal monsoon rainfall that starts from June and ends in September. Last year, the deficiency in monsoon rainfall stood at 12%.
India’s GDP growth of 7% in April-June quarter is “disappointing”, said Fitch.
The slowdown in growth was led by “moderating private consumption growth” and falling net exports.
Nevertheless, the rating agency estimates the country’s growth to accelerate to 8% in 2016-17 and 2017-18 fiscal years. It said that the government is increasing its capital expenditure.
“The effect of gradual implementation of a number of structural reforms is also expected to contribute to higher growth, even though progress is lacking on big ticket reforms such as the Land Acquisition Amendment Bill and the Goods and Services Tax,” NDTV Profit quoted Fitch as saying.
It said India would be “less affected” by a slowdown in Chinese economy.
“Further monetary policy easing seems unlikely in the short run as the RBI has indicated that the latest rate cut in September 2015 was a front-loaded policy action,” it said.
