DUBLIN: A €254m jump in the value of goods exports helped drive a near 22% surge in Ireland’s trade surplus in April, newly published preliminary figures from the CSO show.
According to the latest seasonally adjusted data, the value of Irish goods exports increased by 3% to €9.24bn in April, compared to the preceding month.
An 11% — or €565m — drop to just over €4.7bn in the value of seasonally adjusted goods imports ultimately led to the bounce in the monthly trade surplus, which rose by €819m (22%) to €4.53bn.
The April surplus is the highest since January when a figure of just under €4.8bn was posted. The latest CSO data showed an increase in the export of electrical machinery and of food and live animals. However, exports of medical and pharmaceutical products declined by 11% to €2.44bn.
Conall Mac Coille, chief economist with Davy Stockbrokers, noted that excluding the pharmaceutical sector Irish export performance was still up 5%, year-on-year, in the first four months of the year.
A slightly weaker full-year performance may be expected in 2016, but Mr. Mac Coille said it remains too early to call.
However, Merrion’s chief economist Alan McQuaid said Ireland’s trade balance should still be in a strong position come the end of this year, despite what decision is taken regarding Britain’s future membership of the EU.
“Despite concerns over trade with the UK, we still think the overall merchandise goods surplus this year will be higher than in 2015. Following the March figures, we are now projecting a positive trade balance for 2016 of €44bn-€45bn,” he said in a recent note.
“There was very strong growth in Irish merchandise exports in 2015, and we think 2016 will see another solid performance. Ireland’s trade performance in 2015 benefitted from competitiveness gains made against its main partners and by the weakening of the euro, particularly against sterling and the dollar. Against a difficult global backdrop, the strength of the US and UK economies was clearly a factor here.
“However, with sterling starting to weaken against the euro on Brexit fears and a less favourable Bank of England interest rate outlook, that could weigh negatively on Irish exports to the UK in 2016,” he added.
The EU accounted for 50% of total Irish goods exported in April. Of that, €1.22bn worth went to Belgium and just over €1bn went to Britain. The US was the top non-EU destination for Irish goods, accounting for €2.4bn or 26% of total exports.
While the latest CSO data suggests Irish export performance is holding up, big business is warning that a Brexit could seriously hamper Irish trade. Speaking at a Dublin Chamber event, yesterday, Greencore chief executive Patrick Coveney said that a Brexit would be “very, very bad for the Irish, European and world economies”.
“The principal consequence for Ireland is that Britain trades worse. If your biggest trading partner goes into an extended period of decline and uncertainty, that is bad for us as a country… We will have to seek to do some kind of bilateral deal with the UK. I’ve no idea what that would involve but we’d have to try and it would be hard.
“The country for whom Britain leaving the EU has the biggest consequences is Ireland. The second is Germany. Both because of the bilateral trade relationship,” he added.
