COPENHAGEN: Efficiency continues to drive the Danish pig sector, and this year’s Herning Congress produced clear indications that welfare, antibiotic-free production and achieving greater stability in its finishing sector were of equal importance in future-proofing this export-dependent industry.
Market security, both at home and aboard, is vital, and Denmark’s successful Chinese export trade, which has doubled during the past two years, has helped reverse fortunes. Prices have been stable, and following an upward trend for most of 2016, it has been the most profitable year Danish producers have seen for a decade.
But China offers no long-term guarantees. The resurrection of its own production sector – which is likely – will cut import volumes into its urbanised provinces and possibly pressurise global soya and other commodity feed stock markets. Add burgeoning competition from US and Brazilian pigmeat sectors to the mix, and Denmark’s currently comfortable economic position could change significantly.
Karsten Flemin, above, senior market analyst at the Danish Agriculture and Food Council (DAFC), agrees that increased competition is on the horizon, although only a relatively small decline in pigmeat exports out of the EU is predicted for 2017.
“Chinese pig production will expand in the next year,” he said. “Chinese pig producers have done well during 2016 and that will encourage investment in its domestic market. US Department of Agriculture predictions expect production to rise there by 3.7 per cent next year, but this follows a fall of 5.5 per cent seen in 2016, so we are only expecting a modest fall in our Chinese export trade next year – a drop from 2.4 million tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes.”
Europe’s declining pig numbers might also help Denmark counter some of this loss. Mr Flemin pointed out that the 2 per cent increase in the EU’s total slaughterings during the first half of 2016 has not been sustained. Preliminary calculations for the third quarter did show a year-on-year decline and weaner prices are firm and favourable, despite falling finisher prices.
