Italy’s exports risk paying a hefty price tag for protectionism in 2017

ROME: This year is expected to be a difficult one for free trade; and protectionist President-elect Donald Trump, with his firm anti-TTIP stance, is only one of the hurdles along the routes of world trade. Other obstacles are the Brexit negotiations; the impasse with Beijing, since neither the US nor the EU granted China market economy status in December; sanctions against Russia; finally, the possible slowdown of Iran’s opening-up process.

A lot has already been said about this combination of stop signs on the world stage. How much will it cost our country, though? According to experts, it could carry a hefty price tag: what with the US, China, Iran, Russia and Great Britain, our 2017 exports risk falling up to €30 billion in a year. “The equivalent of two years of Stability Laws, ” comments Professor Giuliano Noci, Vice Rector [for the Chinese Campus] of the Milan Polytechnic, “so that it’s crucial that Italy devote 2017 to seeking new business markets, for instance in Asia and Africa.”

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Estimates are actually not unequivocal, and the €30 billion figure belongs to the worst-case scenario. Professor Noci himself would rather speak of a range “between €15 and €30 billion,” equivalent to 4-8% of our world exports. Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist for Euler Hermes, the credit insurance company of the Allianz group, is more cautious: according to his estimates, Italy will sacrifice €4 billion on the altar of protectionism. “And, since we had forecast that Italian exports would have gained €20 billion in 2017 the end result for Italian production, revised in view of the backlash, will be positive anyway, +€15.6 billion,” said Subran.