ZURICH: The UBS Swiss consumption indicator rose to 1.38 points in June from a downwardly revised 1.32 in May, the Swiss bank’s economists said on Wednesday. JUNE 2017 MAY 2017 JUNE 2016 Consumption indicator 1.38 1.32 (1.39) 1.14 Numbers in brackets show the value as was originally reported COMMENTS FROM THE UBS STATEMENT: “UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months.
Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however this was offset somewhat by robust new car registrations data and overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.” “UBS’s consumption indicator has been hit by weak growth in Swiss employment in recent quarters. Indeed, across the last five quarters, data suggests employment has all but stagnated.” “We expect employment growth rates to pick up during the course of the year, which should support consumption. Somewhat offsetting weak employment data, new car registrations rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in June.”
“The mood also improved in the retail sector, although it started from a low base.” BACKGROUND ON THE INDICATOR: The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50 percent, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.
