Researchers at the Center for International Development of the Harvard University, in a study, have predicted Pakistan’s annual growth rate at 6 percent for the next 10 years, revising an earlier projection of five percent for the period. However, the largest economic partner of Pakistan, China with current GDP of $12 trillion will achieve a growth rate of 4.41 percent. The growth rate of a country is measured by keeping in view economic complexities, diversities and sophistication’s as well as its production capability with regard to its exports. According to the study,economic complexities not only describe what makes a country rich or poor, but projects its future growths. The growth rate of Pakistan will beat all Asian economies but it would have no match with India which will grow at 7 percent in coming years.
Though the world financial institutions predict subdued GDP growth rate in coming years, but some economists hope it will improve to over eight percent by 2030 as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will go in full operation by then. However, keeping in view political uncertainty and poor governance, achievement of even five percent growth rate will be unattainable. On the basis of the recent tumultuous events on the political canvas of the country, independent economist question even the government’s claim of achieving 5.3 percent GDP growth rate in 2016-17. The major issue facing the nation at the moment is to keep consistency in the ongoing economic policies and maintain the financial order. It has been a routine in the history of the country that unscrupulous elements come out from hibernation to damage the business and trade activities in uncertain political environment.
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The new prime minister has, however, assured the nation that economic policies of the Nawaz government would continue, but he needs to do more than that. The former finance minister with all his abilities and capabilities had failed to keep financial order in the country. He is also blamed for statistical manipulation of economic growth, revenues, expenditures and budget deficit at a large-scale. The world financial institutions have also questioned the GDP growth rate of the country claimed by the minister when electricity consumption fell by seven percent, exports declined and unemployment increased. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, toeing the line of the finance minister, also overstated the growth rate in the gross domestic product to create an image that economy is growing under the PML-N government. Until the leaders stop playing bluffs with the nation, the real economic growth will never be achieved
