BEIJING: China’s metals trade figures were once a spotlight on the state of the world’s manufacturing engine and price driver. The monthly update on the country’s seemingly insatiable appetite for imported metal was hardwired into the bull market narrative at the start of the decade. It’s hard to believe now, but as recently as 2012 China was a major importer of primary aluminium to the tune of half a million tonnes. Now both markets and politicians worry about how much aluminium is coming out of China in semi-manufactured form.It’s not that the trade figures have lost market significance. They are, after all, some of the “hardest” statistics on offer in understanding China’s sway on prices. And the country still has plenty of influence. It’s just that its trade impact on the rest of the metallic world no longer conforms to a unifying narrative, but rather a spectrum of story lines. The following is a round-up of some of those storylines based on the latest figures for July. One of the hot commodity stories this year, cobalt is attracting unprecedented media and speculative interest thanks to its role in the green technology revolution.
China has historically been a consistent importer of cobalt raw materials and refined cobalt metal, just about all of it coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). But imports of unwrought metal and powders have experienced a step change over the past 12 months. They more than doubled last year and, at 10,800 tonnes so far this year, look set to do so again in 2017. This is because of both solid demand for the battery input and to booming production in the DRC, up 27 percent to almost 40,000 tonnes in the first half of this year. Among the traditional industrial metals, the big Chinese trade surprise this year has been unglamorous lead. China was a consistent net exporter of refined lead in the 2013-2016 period. This year, however, it is importing what are, by the standards of this market, significant tonnages. Cumulative imports of 59,000 tonnes in the January to July period are the highest since 2009. Imports of mined concentrates are tracking last year’s levels, with North Korea remaining the second-largest supplier behind Russia. North Korean imports were 13,000 tonnes (bulk weight) in July — evidence that China’s ban on imports has yet to bite.
