BEIJING: China’s economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, a Reuters poll showed, as the government extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution. Policymakers in the world’s second largest economy have been trying to contain financial risks and slow an explosive build-up in debt without stunting economic growth. The poll of 61 analysts showed growth in gross domestic product likely slowed to 6.7 percent on a year-on-year basis, down from 6.8 percent in the third quarter.
The expected moderation comes on the back of a cooling property sector, pollution curbs that have hit factory activity and a rise in corporate borrowing costs. We see Q4 GDP (growth) moderating slightly to 6.7 percent year-on-year, with softer quarter-on-quarter momentum,” analysts at UBS said in a note. GDP growth for the full-year of 2018 could slow to 6.4 percent from an expected 6.8 percent in 2017, as “property sales and construction slow on sustained tight policies and fading market momentum” and infrastructure investment decelerates on tighter local government financing, the UBS analysts said. Analysts’ forecasts for December quarter growth ranged from 6.5 percent to 7 percent, with modest upside surprises tipped after Premier Li Keqiang said last week that the economy is expected to have grown 6.9 percent last year. Economists in the poll estimated GDP grew 1.6 percentquarter-on-quarter, easing from 1.7 percent in the third quarter, though only 16 analysts gave sequential forecasts.
China’s exports and imports growth slowed in December after surging in the previous month, adding to signs of ebbing economic momentum. Solid exports have been a boon for Chinese policymakers. Policy sources told Reuters previously that China will still keep its GDP growth target at around 6.5 percent in 2018 as Beijing seeks to balance efforts to reduce debt risks while keeping the economy on a steady footing.
