The world is going to blow past its most stringent climate goal in less than a quarter century unless the political will erupts to act faster and more directly to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
That’s the key message in a new report released Sunday by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says meeting the ambitious goal “would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.”
The report is a scientific blueprint for how the world can meet its climate change targets. However, it shows that right now the world is on track to warm up by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2040.
The world is currently warming up at about 0.2 C each decade, and has already warmed by more than 1 C compared to the mid-19th century.
The 2015 Paris climate change agreement set a goal to reduce emissions by the end of this century enough to keep the world from warming up more than 2 C compared to pre industrial times. But there was also a stronger goal to aim for 1.5 C.
Catherine Abreu, executive director of the Climate Action Network Canada, said the difference between 1.5 C and 2 C may not seem like much but it is actually “huge” when it comes to climate change.
Carbon Brief, a United Kingdom-based website focused on climate science and policy, reviewed 70 peer-reviewed climate studies. Based on that, it estimated Friday that at 1.5 C of warming, global sea levels will rise an average of 48 cm — but at 2 C that goes to 56 cm.
Furthermore, the group estimated the chances of having an ice-free summer in the Arctic rises to 16 per cent at 2 C of warming from three per cent at 1.5 C. And the frequency of extreme rainfall events in eastern Canada will go up 26 per cent at 1.5 C, and 55 per cent at 2 C.
