The ever more frequent meetings between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko over the course of 2018 did not erase ongoing and underlying bilateral disparities between Minsk and Moscow.
And their February meeting in Sochi this year didn’t achieve that either. However, the Russia-Belarus Sochi talks did at least offer fresh hints at where relations are heading.
The key signal made during the meeting of the two presidents on 13–15 February was a statement from Lukashenko. It concerned the sovereignty of Belarus in the context of “deeper integration” with Russia. According to the Belarusian leader, sovereignty (understood as supremacy over one’s own territory) is “a holy icon” and “a sacred thing” Independence, he distinguished, is “a relative concept,” since no country in the world is fully independent.
Lukashenko said the possibilities of further integration with Russia depended on the will of the peoples of the two countries. In his opinion, the leaders of Belarus and Russia are ready for unification while the people are not yet prepared. When the Belarusian and the Russian people are ready, the presidents will fulfil their will to unite.
These bold statements may sound radical to an unprepared listener. Yet, any observer familiar with Lukashenko’s communication style understands that the words about “readiness to unite” are a traditional formula for the Belarusian leader. The formula allows him to position himself as an active supporter of the idea to strengthen the Belarusian-Russian union. At the same time, he can remain at a safe distance from any practical obligations.
