NAIROBI: Kenya will experience a cereal deficit of 2,957 metric tonnes this year in what is set to push up food prices, a report by the budget office has said.
The report by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) says that despite enhanced investment in agriculture, the country is yet to achieve food security. “The country may be faced with a food shortage in the second half of 2015 especially in the Arid and Semi-Arid Areas.
Anastacia Kemunto (left), a cereals dealer in Kisii County. The country could experience a cereal deficit of 2,957 metric tonnes this year. (PHOTO: DENISH OCHIENG/ STANDARD) This will push the food prices upwards, which is a significant contributor to the overall inflation,” the report notes.
This is set to reverse the gains made in trying to contain the cost of living in coming months. Last month, The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data put the overall inflation at 5.84 per cent, slowing down from 6.62 per cent in July. A shortage would mean importation and this is set to further put pressure on the currency that has been volatile for the better part of this year on account of a big import bill.
“The country is still dependent on rain-fed agriculture and the government investment in large-scale irrigation is facing challenges. With inadequate rainfall over most parts of the country, there is a high likelihood of food shortage and subsequently high food prices,” the report in its eighth edition says in part.
The report estimates that food insecurity is likely to affect 1.6 million Kenyans falling under the low-income households. It notes that food security lies with mechanisation of agriculture and investment in effective irrigation scheme but wants both levels of government to play their part.
“Since agriculture is a shared function, both levels of government should purpose on improving the quality and quantity of output. This is a scenario projected despite the fact that the country is poised to receive an El Nino type of weather where floods are expected,” the report notes.
The effects on crop yield will be felt in 2016 and will form part of the 2016-17 budget. The report notes that over the years, the productivity of the agricultural sector has decreased while the demand for food increased forcing the country to import to meet the shortage.
“The country has witnessed shortage in all the major food crops produced in 2014. Thus the country has relied heavily on importation of some of its staple food crops to meet the shortage,” the report notes. The push to improve productivity through irrigation, modernisation and mechanisation of agricultural activity is yet to make an impact. It is noted that the Galana-Kulalu irrigation project, a major flagship project of the Vision 2030, is facing challenges and this may deal a blow to the efforts of food security.
