KUWAIT: Kuwaiti growth dropped to 2.7% in 2014 although it was 2.9% last year. The dramatic fall in the oil price in the second half of 2014 heralds an era of much cheaper oil, which will impact upon Kuwaiti growth.
High oil prices in recent years have translated into increased spending by the Kuwaiti government. This will boost growth at the Gulf state’s ports, both through spending on infrastructure projects impacting on total tonnage throughputs and through consumer spending boosting imports of containerized goods.
Nevertheless, Kuwait has significant fiscal buffers, and could live with oil prices around USD60/bbl for an extended period of time. We currently forecast the price to be within the USD70-75/bbl range over the next several years, and we expect government spending to continue.
2015 port of Shuaiba tonnage throughput growth forecast at 10.0% and to average 8.0% to 2019. 2015 port of Shuwaikh container throughput forecast to grow 1.96% and to average 1.7% to 2018.2015 total trade growth forecast to grow 2.6% and to average 2.6% to 2019.
The Kuwait Oil Tanker Company (KOTC) took delivery of a new Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) in August 2014. The Al-Yarmouk was built at the Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering shipyard in South Korea, and has a capacity of 2.2mn barrels of oil, with a deadweight tonnage of 317,000.
New Crude Export Deal To Egypt: In October Kuwait began monthly shipments of 2mn barrels of crude oil to the Egyptian port of Ain Sukhna, on the Red Sea. From there the oil is transported by pipeline to the Egyptian refinery of Sidi Kerir, on the Mediterranean coast. This means that the oil does not have to be transported through the Suez Canal – which is at any rate too small to accommodate VLCCs carrying 2mn barrels of crude.
