KUWAIT: Oil prices are not expected to rise in the coming three years and will not touch the past record level of $100 per barrel, according to an eminent Kuwaiti analyst. Kamel Al-Harmi, interviewed by Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) based his outlook on the forecast that the world economy would not boom due to a series of reasons, such as Greek financial problem and economic woes in Japan. He opined that the forecast OPEC’s decision, at the cartel’s conference today, to maintain the current output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day would be “the right decision, “considering the present circumstances.” Al-Harmi, who had served in the oil sector for 30 years occupying several senior positions, also cited other factors upon which he based his outlook, namely the current two million barrels of oil glut, swamping the markets, particularly in shadow of partial production by Iraq, Iran and Libya.
However, output by these three countries is expected to rise following the predicted agreement between the West and Iran over the latter’s nuclear file, due in end of the current month. The producing trio are forecast to pump 5-6 million barrels per day into the markets-bulk of which to be contributed by Iraq, in addition to forecast rise of shale oil production from the US, China and Russia.
In response to a question regarding reasons that have recently pushed the oil price from $45 pb to $65 pb, Al-Harmi opined that it was due to hefty speculations and control of influential financial quarters as well as world bourses on the markets. As to Saudi Arabia’s rejection of calls to cut its market share, he said Riyadh cannot take such a decision, considering the forecast comeback by the other major producers to the market. He supported Riyadh’s argument that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers must coordinate to keep the prices at a reasonable level.
