KUALALUM PUR: Malaysian moderate growth dropped to 4.2% in 2015 although it was 5.8% in last year. The forecast for 2015 is that growth will ease back to a slower, but still impressive 4.2%. The growth as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.8% in the third quarter of last year, compared to 6.2% and 6.5% in the first and second quarters, respectively.
Activity levels at Malaysia’s main ports will grow moderately in 2015, on the back of continuing economic expansion and a good trade performance. Gross tonnage and container volume growth will pick up as both exports and imports continue to grow, despite a slight easing of domestic consumption. Port Klang and Port Tanjung Pelepas will also benefit from expansion projects and developments over the last two years. Tonnage growth at both will lag slightly behind GDP, with box traffic growth leading GDP and, in the case of Port Klang, exceeding 7%.
We think export growth will remain pretty strong, as there is evidence of a sustained recovery in global demand for electronics and semi-conductors, both key products of the Malaysian manufacturing sector. However, we do expect government action to cool the boom in the domestic consumer market, particularly given the relatively high levels of household debt. The authorities have already sought to reduce liquidity in the market, and a tightening of interest rates to restrain inflationary pressure is on the cards.
The real value of Malaysia’s total trade will rise by 4.5% in 2015, marginally down on the 4.7% rate estimated for 2014.
Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 1.4% to 202.33mn tonnes in 2015, while volume at the port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by 3.7% to 131.02mn tonnes.
