CANBERRA: National Australia Bank hiked its forecast for the Australian wheat harvest, but to levels well below those officials are expecting, as mounting dryness provokes fresh debate over production prospects.
“Solid and timely rainfall” in Western Australia and New South Wales had boosted crop prospects since NAB’s last crop forecast, two months ago, when the bank, one of the most pessimistic commentators this year, pegged the crop at 21.6m tonnes.
“The risk of El Niño,” which has a history of bringing dryness to many key grain-growing areas, “is pushed back towards [southern hemisphere] summer”, said Khan Horne, general Manager of NAB agribusiness. “We have revised our production forecast to be 1.4% higher than last year,” he said, implying an estimate of a 24m-tonne crop.
