KARACHI: The central bank said it expects the country’s economy to shed the coronavirus shock this year and grow by 3.49% annually.
Pakistan suffered its first ever economic contraction last fiscal year, since 1952 when its economy contracted by 0.4%. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said the country’s GDP is expected to rise to 3.49% as “post-Covid recovery underway since last summer has strengthened”.
The central bank had earlier forecast that the economy will grow by 3% in the current fiscal year, revising its target from over 2%. It had said that the current account had gone into surplus for the first time in 17 years, adding that the foreign account reserves were also at a four-year high.
Earlier, the SBP forecast the economy to grow 3 percent in the current fiscal year after revised its forecast higher from above 2 percent. “The 9-mth current account is also in surplus for the first time in 17 years and foreign currency reserves at a four year high,” the SBP said.
“This rebound was fueled by a well-calibrated policy response.” The SBP, over the weekend also clarified that the provisional estimate for FY2021 growth of 3.94 percent released by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) reflects the strong economic recovery underway since the beginning of this fiscal year, which has been highlighted in its recent monetary policy statements and quarterly reports.
“The SBP had raised its own growth forecast in March on the basis of buoyant economic activity reflected in different high frequency data,” it added. “This was done in an appropriately conservative manner while noting upside risks to growth. Data received since then, and discussed in the NAC, suggest these upside risks have materialized. The estimate released was approved unanimously and has the full backing of the SBP.”
The SBP said it provided a targeted economic stimulus of Rs2 trillion or 5 percent of GDP to support the recovery through interest rate cut, principal deferment and loan restructuring, Rozgar payroll finance scheme to prevent layoffs, and concessional finance for investment in industry and health facilities.
The SBP rapidly reduced the policy rate by 625 basis points to give significant interest expense relief for borrowers. That is Rs470 billion or 1.1 percent of GDP. The SBP’s aggressive stimulus measures provided economic support to households and businesses and helped saved millions of jobs during the COVID-19
The SBP introduced new facilities to incentivize investment in industry (TERF) and hospitals and public health. The investment loans under TERF have reached Rs449 billion as of May 23, 2021.
The financial institutions have restructured loans worth Rs254 billion under the loan restructuring programme to facilitate viable borrowers to continue business operations. Banks deferred loans worth Rs657 billion under loan principal deferment programme to ease cash constraints of individuals and business borrowers.
The approved and disbursed amount, under the SBP Rozgar Scheme launched to prevent layoff by financing wages and salaries of employees for six months for all kinds of businesses except for the government entities, have increased to Rs238 billion.
The bank said the most important factor that contributed to Pakistan’s market sentiment is that he country has recorded one of the smallest increases in public debt.
Pakistan recorded a mere 1.7% increase in public debt to its GDP through 2020, said the SBP. Given the high public debt, fiscal support was targeted to the most vulnerable, notably through the globally-acclaimed Ehsaas programme. At the same time public debt and deficit were kept under check which has supported market sentiment, investment outlook, and economic recovery, it said.
