CAPE TOWN: Research and market analysis firm Nomura is predicting a relatively quiet first half of the year for South Africa, but expects things to shake up in the second half of the year as the ANC’s elective conference comes into view. The analysts expect ‘political war’ in December, where a number of shocks can occur, but a number of events still need to take place before then, including the party’s policy conference and consultative conference, and the state of the nation address in November – all while the threat of a cabinet reshuffle hangs in the background.
“All this should keep growth weak, albeit slightly stronger than in 2016,” the group said. “We see this having little impact on the SARB, unless the currency weakens, though downgrade risk will be an important secondary narrative. South African asset prices should perform ‘ok’, but mainly because there are more negative peers to compare to – Turkey especially.”
