CANBERRA: As China’s economy continued to lose momentum through the fourth quarter of 2015, most commodity prices followed suit.
Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist warned in the latest edition of its China Resources Quarterly that the longer commodity prices spent at their current levels, the more pressure would be brought to bear on mines, which were operating in the upper quartile of their respective industry cost curves.
The report stated that while China’s demand for most imported raw materials remained robust in the December quarter, Australia’s overall export earnings from trade with China declined owing to sharp falls in the price of most commodities.
Although China’s steel production had been declining, its iron-ore imports grew by 9% in the fourth quarter, with falling domestic iron-ore production and lower global freight rates supporting the competitiveness of seaborne iron-ore.
Australia’s iron-ore export volumes into China increased by 7% to 162-million tonnes in the quarter, but values fell to A$9-billion, the lowest value since the first quarter of 2010. China’s imports of thermal coal declined 28% to 36-million tonnes in the same period, in response to relatively slower demand growth.
Australia’s exports to China decreased by 39% to 6.8-million in the fourth quarter, while values declined by 45% to A$390-million. China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports declined by 11% in 2015 to 19.7-million tonnes; however, LNG imports from Australia accounted for the majority of the imports, with Australian LNG imports increasing by 46% in 2015 to 5.6-million tonnes.
The value of Australia’s LNG imports also increased by 127% to $1.6-billion. Australia’s gold export volumes to China also increased during the fourth quarter, by about 26% on the previous corresponding period, reaching 53 t, with the value of the gold exports increasing by 37% to A$2.6-billion.
China’s gold demand was underpinned by an increase in jewellery consumption, which increased 4% during the quarter, to 188 t, as lower prices encouraged purchase. Demand for gold bars also increased by about 70% on the previous corresponding period, to 52 t, supported by the devaluation of the yuan and the release of commemorative coins.
