In Ancient Rome, the arrival of a conquering general from the front meant either a rapid change of political scenery or as much pomp and circumstance as could be drawn from its seven hills. With the lengths to which the Italian government went through to welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping last March to inaugurate Italy’s joining of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, Romans may very well have asked themselves if both outcomes were taking place simultaneously. Outside of Italy, however, enthusiasm for the visit was more restrained. Even some of Italy’s closest European Union partners saw Italy as a modern-day Trojan Horse, betraying trans-Atlantic ideals for Chinese patronage.
Whatever their views on the visit, both Western press and policy circles overwhelmingly focused on what the trip meant for the EU rather than assessing Beijing’s motives. The Chinese angle went beyond co-opting a G7 member into its belt and road initiative. Beijing’s first successful foray into securing an EU investor partner for its BRI is not just an economic victory for Beijing, but a powerful warning shot to the Kremlin that China will not allow Russia to envelop parts of Europe spinning off the illiberal axis all on its own.
China’s investment money is a tantalizing offer to weak and inexperienced European political regimes starved for cash and legitimacy in a European neighborhood that has, since the start of the Trump administration, been drifting away from American influence and looking for new benefactors. So far, Russia has stepped into that role providing not only political cover for euro-skeptic parties and leaders but also assistance in winning the information space against more liberally-minded political parties. However, Moscow’s political cover does not pay the actual bills. Beijing’s offer would pay those bills and then some, without resorting to purchasing European manufacturing outright. That offer may not buy China political influence in the EU, but it most definitely challenges a geopolitical theatre that until now Moscow considered its rightful space of operations.
