ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to meet most of the key performance criteria outlined in its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs, as the IMF team prepares for a third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in the last week of February 2026.
According to Topline Securities, the reviews will assess Pakistan’s performance against the set targets for September 2025 and December 2025, with a focus on quantitative performance criteria (QPC) that are critical for program continuation. A failure to meet these targets would require a board-level waiver from the IMF. According to calculations, Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all of the seven QPCs, though one indicator, the floor on targeted cash transfers, was narrowly missed in the last review by Rs1 billion.
In terms of Net International Reserves (NIR), Pakistan is expected to remain slightly below the benchmark floor, with projections at approximately -$6.7 billion for September 2025 and -$6 billion for December 2025. These figures fall short of the target of -$7 billion and -$6.5 billion, respectively.
Similarly, the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) are anticipated to remain in the range of Rs12.5-13.5 trillion, compared to the ceiling target of Rs14.9-15.1 trillion for both September and December 2025.
Additionally, foreign currency swaps for the same period are expected to total $2.2 billion/Rs1.86 billion, falling just short of the target of $2.25 billion/$2.0 billion.
On the fiscal front, the primary surplus for September and December 2025 is estimated at Rs3.5 trillion and Rs4.1 trillion, which significantly exceeds the IMF’s target of Rs460 billion and Rs3.2 trillion, respectively. Both government guarantees and cash transfer spending are expected to meet the set targets. Furthermore, the new tax returns target is also likely to be met, providing some confidence in fiscal management.
However, FBR tax revenues remain an area of concern. The tax collection target was missed by Rs336 billion, with the FBR falling short of its revenue goals. Despite this, a portion of the shortfall could potentially be addressed through verdicts related to the Super Tax. Still, it is expected that overall tax collection will remain below the original target for the year.
Despite these fiscal challenges, the brokerage firm said that Pakistan’s progress in other areas under the IMF program shows promise, offering hope for meeting expectations in the upcoming reviews.
