BUENOS AIRES: After suspending the publication of Argentina’s economic data indefinitely to overhaul the staff and methodology, a timetable for the release of indicators should be announced in a month, said Jorge Todesca, the new chief of the statistics agency.
It may take months to begin publishing credible economic data once again, Todesca, who was named to his post last month by President Mauricio Macri, said in an interview in Buenos Aires.
“In about a month we’ll be able to give a vision of the dates when all the indicators will come out,” he said from his office in downtown Buenos Aires, blocks away from the presidential palace. “We’re prioritizing CPI, GDP, trade balance and poverty.”
Todesca successfully disputed the previous government’s attempt to fine him for publishing an alternative consumer price index when he ran the economic research and consultancy firm Finsoport. The government began to underreport price increases in 2007 when then-President Nestor Kirchner overhauled staff at the statistics agency. In 2011, the government fined private consulting firms that published inflation estimates contradicting official figures. Argentina in 2013 was the first country to be censured by the IMF for failing to report accurate data.
Argentina’s government announced a “statistical emergency” on Dec. 30 that will allow authorities to reform the organization swiftly and thoroughly, Todesca said. Of the 1,700 employees, 100 contracts weren’t renewed and another 200 contracts are being evaluated.
Todesca said the institute will not give any estimates of what inflation may be at this point before they publish official figures.
“Our task is to measure, not to infer,” he says. “We can make projections on demographic issues, as those are mathematical models, but not on socioeconomic matters. That’s the job I used to do, not the one I do now.”
Private analysts estimate annual inflation was about 25 percent in 2015. That compares to official figures from the previous administration that placed annual inflation at 14 percent. Consumer price indexes produced by the City of Buenos Aires and San Luis province are accurate gauges of inflation, he said.
Todesca said it’s unlikely that the institute will be able to publish a retroactive inflation index revising the figures provided by the previous administration.
“This is very much like a photograph — a photograph that wasn’t taken cannot be taken later,” he said. “There are surveys that simply were not done, or we do not know how they were done. It will be hard to prepare.”
In terms of economic growth data, it’s unclear if the agency will be able to construct a retroactive index, as it’s hard to detect at which point data was modified. Indec, as the statistics agency is known, may be able to reconstruct an index for trade balance based on customs figures.
Argentina will do a nationwide population census in 2019. Measuring poverty will be among the agency’s greatest challenges.
“Having a new price index might take time, but it won’t be tough because there’s a protocol,” Todesca said. “Measuring poverty is a greater challenge. We need to develop a transparent methodology to help identify where the country’s poor are and evaluate the government’s social policies.”
Afghan relations Pakistan still wants to rub shoulders despite allegations
KABUL: Despite all the rampant allegations propagated by Afghanistan regarding the use of Pakistani soil to foment terror in the...
