CANBERRA: The value of gas exports will surge by nearly 60% in the next two years, from $22.3bn to $35.4bn, as Australia becomes the world’s biggest exporter of LNG. Last week gas exporters agreed to guarantee supply for Australia’s eastern gas market to prevent a looming shortfall next year. Figures published in Resources and Energy Quarterly on Friday show the surge in gas production will predominantly come from Australia’s western and northern gas markets, when three large LNG projects under construction (Wheatstone, Icthys, and Prelude) come online. But there could be strong growth in exports from the eastern gas market, depending on the deal struck with Malcolm Turnbull last week. “That might be price growth or volume growth, or it might be both,” the head of the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association, Malcolm Roberts, told Guardian Australia.“It will depend to some extent on local demand, because local customers will be getting first dibs on uncontracted gas [next year].”
In a move hailed as a win by the government last week, Santos, Origin Energy and Shell agreed to quarantine additional supply for the eastern gas market. “They have given us a guarantee that they will offer to the domestic market the gas that was identified as the expected demand shortfall by [the Australian Energy Market Operator] in 2018,” Turnbull said after his meeting with gas bosses last week. “They stated that they will provide a similar guarantee over two years, that’s their intention … they’ve stated that they will offer first, as a first priority, domestic customers any uncontracted gas in the future as a priority.” Roberts said on Thursday there would still be “considerable growth” in gas exports over the next two years, even though Queensland plants were not operating at capacity.
