PARIS: The Banque de France will publish its second estimate for Q3 GDP growth. The GDP growth rate is likely to be unchanged at 0.3% qoq, estimates Societe Generale. The Banque de France carried out a monthly survey of business leaders’ opinions throughout its network of branches at the end of August.
Mirroring the improvement in the business survey (and in contrast to the PMI survey), the resulting Banque de France Business Sentiment indicator for the manufacturing sector is likely to increase from 98 to 100 in August as business confidence is being supported by a weaker euro, low oil prices and improved credit channels, adds SocGen. Moreover, corporate tax cuts have already started to boost profit margins, and this should also support business confidence.
The expected figure of 100 would be consistent with the long-term trend GDP growth rate, says Societe Generale. Despite the positives listed above, French business leaders remain unconvinced that this growth is sustainable, in particular given the lack of reform in the labour market. Additionally, continuing uncertainty over Greece and a possible Chinese hard landing mean that business sentiment is unlikely to exceed 100.
