PORTLAND: Blueberry exports to Japan, a major destination for the crop, have decreased in recent years but experts aren’t alarmed about the market’s future.
While the total amount of frozen and fresh blueberry shipments to Japan has dropped off, the decrease probably isn’t indicative of a long-term downward trend and the nation is expected to remain a top consumer, experts say. “We’re not discouraged by it,” said Tom Payne, a market development consultant for the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council.
Exports of frozen bluberries, the most common form of the crop shipped to Japan, were on the rise until hitting $13.6 million in value in 2013, according to USDA. After that, shipments fell 6 percent in 2014 and were on track to decrease 11 percent in 2015.
Similarly, exports of fresh cultivated blueberries to Japan topped $6 million in 2011 and 2012 but fell to roughly $5 million in 2013 and 2014, and shipments were trending lower through most of last year.
The softening of the Japanese market isn’t caused by shifting consumer tastes, but is linked to economic problems in the wake of the country’s catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in 2011, Payne said during the annual Oregon Blueberry Conference in Portland.
Since then, the dollar has gained in value significantly against the Japanese yen, which has reduced the buying power of major retailers in that nation, he said. A U.S. dollar was trading in the range of 80 Japanese yen during 2011 and 2012, but spiked above 120 yen in 2015, an increase of roughly 50 percent.
Japan was an important “ready to go” market for U.S. blueberries, with consumers who have high disposable incomes and are receptive to positive health messages about the fruit, said Jeff Malensky, vice president of international sales at the Oregon Berry Packing Co.
As the market matures, it’s natural that growth will slow down or flatten, he said. Meanwhile, exports to nearby South Korea have exploded and the country appears to be the “new Japan,” Payne said. Frozen blueberry exports to South Korea more than doubled from 2011 to 2014, from $7.5 million to $16 million, and were in line to continue increasing in 2015. The value of fresh blueberry shipments to that nation surged from less than $1 million in 2011 to nearly $2 million in 2014, and were on track to hit $3 million last year.
Payne said he’s optimistic about the overall trajectory of blueberry exports, which now represent about 15 percent of the U.S. crop and have grown by one-third in volume since 2010. Consumption of blueberries around the world will have to increase to keep pace with production.
Between 2010 and 2014, global blueberry production grew 65 percent, to about 1.24 billion pounds, said Dave Brazelton, founder of Fall Creek Farm & Nursery. Blueberry production is projected to grow 500 million pounds, to 1.7 billion, by 2019, he said.
Meanwhile, in recent years more frozen blueberries are going into storage than are coming out in the U.S., which does not bode well for prices received by farmers, said John Shelford, president of the Shelford Associates market consulting firm.
While the industry can’t expect to clear out its inventories completely, roughly one-fourth of frozen U.S. blueberries are now left unconsumed from year to year, Shelford said.
