BANGKOK: The Bank of Thailand sees upside risk to its 2017 forecast of 3.2% GDP growth if the US economy performs better than expected or the Thai government manages to get its infrastructure projects off the ground ahead of schedule. “There are some positive factors that could enable the country’s GDP to grow by more than 3.2%,” said central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob. “If the new US president is able to deliver policies that help the economy grow better than expected, it might benefit Thailand through exports.”
If the government can splash money on infrastructure projects at a faster pace than expected, the country’s economic growth will likely surpass the central bank’s forecast, he said.
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is maintaining its economic growth forecasts of 3.2% this year and next in light of upside and downside risks to growth.
“Commodity prices, especially for agricultural products, will also play an important role in the country’s economic growth next year,” said Mr Veerathai, adding that if the tourism sector recovers faster next year, it could bode well for economic growth. The MPC views external headwinds as the major downside risk to Thailand’s growth in 2017. One example is the potential of protectionist US trade policy, which will prompt other countries to follow suit. “Geopolitical developments from elections in a number of countries next year and the Brexit negotiations may also dampen investor confidence,” he said.
Separately, Mr Veerathai said the central bank aims to improve the effectiveness of its current monetary policy instruments and also come with up new policy instruments to cope with changing economic and financial structures.
