BRASILIA: Brazilian corn exports set a record high volume in November, and despite more rains in the forecast, December corn exports are likely to rise nearly 10 percent from the previous month.
Since the beginning of November, the delay for bulkers waiting to load outside Brazil’s second largest corn port, Paranagua, has lengthened from 43 days to 56 days (tmsnrt.rs/1PQY3C9).
Both Paranagua and other southern ports, which have historically handled the vast majority of Brazil’s grain exports, have tallied well-above average rainfall over the past two months, during the peak of the country’s corn export season.
As excessive rains halt operations at port, the rains have sparked fears that Brazil’s grain export campaign would be negatively impacted.
Paranagua was certainly affected as it shipped the lowest volume of corn for November in over three years as loadings last month were disrupted by rains every other day, on average.
But Brazil as a whole met or exceeded expected monthly corn shipments, dispatching a record 4.9 million tonnes of corn in November as reported by the Brazilian Cereal Exporters Association. Lineup data from Williams Shipping Agency (WSA) in Brazil suggest this figure could be as high as 5.1 million tonnes.
Strong export volumes have been facilitated by both a massive relative increase in shipments out of northern ports and the continued competitiveness in prices.
Although December corn exports are looking to be quite hefty, Brazil would be wise to not become complacent. El Niño is seen as likely to extend the rains, and the soybean shipment window might be approaching earlier than many think.
NORTHERN SUPPORT
During November, northern Brazilian ports shipped as much corn in 2015 as in 2012 through 2014 combined, assisting in the country’s record-setting month (tmsnrt.rs/1m7A70D).
Northern ports have in recent years considerably increased both the exported volume and the total share of Brazil’s corn exports.
Northern Brazil, including ports from the state of Bahia northward, shipped 18 percent of the country’s corn last month compared to just 7 percent in November 2013.
Unlike their southern counterparts, ports in the north have been aided by dry weather. States in northeastern Brazil have recorded roughly one-third of normal rainfall amounts since early October.
The dryness has raised some concern for the 2016 harvest, but the northeastern states only account for 10 percent to 15 percent of Brazil’s full-season corn and soybean crops. Rain appears to be on the way for the area, which could potentially interrupt corn shipments.
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