BEIJING: China’s economy will grow around 6.5 percent in 2017, while the yuan CNY=CFXS will continue to fall, government researchers said in Beijing on Monday. The China Academy of Social Sciences’ (CASS) GDP forecast comes after China’s top leaders held a key meeting on the economy last week, where they vowed to keep China on a path of stable and healthy growth next year. China’s economy has grown at 6.7 percent for the first three quarters of 2016 and is on pace to record the slowest growth rate in more than 25 years.
The economy will grow 6.5 percent in the first and second quarters, and 6.4 percent in the third and fourth quarters, CASS said. A key challenge will be stemming capital outflows amid a depreciating yuan, which has fallen more than 6 percent against the dollar this year. The yuan will depreciate against the dollar by another 3 percent to 5 percent in 2017, Ministry of Commerce researcher Jin Bosong said on Monday. In yuan terms, China’s exports should grow 4 percent to 6 percent in 2017, with imports up 2 percent to 4 percent, Jin said.
CASS also forecast that consumer price inflation will be 2.2 percent in 2017 and producer prices will rise 1.6 percent. Consumer price inflation for the first 11 months of the year was 2.0 percent, while producer prices have fallen 2.0 percent. Retail sales will rise 9.5 percent, while fixed asset investment will increase 8.9 percent. CASS’s forecast in December 2015 for 2016 growth was 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent.
