BEIJING: At the start of 2016 the outlook for Chinese iron ore import growth appeared challenging, given slower import growth in 2015, expectations of continued Chinese steel capacity cuts and China’s ongoing gradual transition towards a more diversified, mature economy. However, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports went on to significantly outperform expectations in 2016 and break the 1bn tonne mark along the way.
Against a backdrop of moderating growth in China’s steel consumption and Beijing’s measures to reduce the country’s surplus steel capacity, Chinese iron ore import growth performed at a level far higher than many had expected last year. In early 2016, expectations were shaped by both a 2% drop in the country’s steel output and a five year low in Chinese iron ore import growth in 2015, as well as plans for continued cuts to steel capacity. However, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports outperformed expectations in 2016, increasing 7% to a record 1,008mt. This was the key driving force in total dry bulk trade growth in 2016 and was largely stimulated by three key factors.
