Chinese emissions may peak by 2025, says analysis

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TOKYO: Chinese greenhouse gas emissions may peak by 2025, according to a new study from the London School of Economics (LSE).
The study, commissioned by two research institutes at the LSE, says emissions from China could peak by 2025 or even earlier as its economy transitions towards a ‘new normal’ of better quality growth.
That would mean emissions from the the world’s second largest economy peaking at around 12.5–14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025.
China had agreed to peak emissions by 2030 under a historic climate accord agreement with the US in November 2014. It was the first time the two nations, which account for 40 per cent of the world’s carbon emissions, had agreed to work together.
“This suggests that China’s international commitment to peak emissions “around 2030” should be seen as a conservative upper limit from a government that prefers to under-promise and over-deliver” said the paper, co-authored by climate economist Nicholas Stern and analyst Fergus Green.
The better-than-expected results could help spur action in developed countries ahead of this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, the report’s authors say.
“There is a lack of understanding in rich countries about the measures China has already taken, and its future plans, with regard to emissions.”
“All too often, commentators and officials in rich countries highlight China’s emissions as a justification for their own inaction.”
“Continued strong examples of Chinese emissions reduction actions, clearly communicated to other countries, could silence such voices and lower the political barriers in rich countries to stronger climate action.”