HANOI: Credit institutions expect credit growth this year to reach 21.82 per cent, according to the State Bank of Việt Nam’s Q4 survey. The growth is higher than the 17.26 per cent of last year. It is also higher than the 20.4 per cent the institutions forecast during the previous survey in Q3. Under the survey on business performance prospects of credit institutions in Q4 and the whole year of 2016, the institutions also forecast that credit growth in the last quarter of this year would be 7.37 per cent, of which lending in Vietnamese đồng would rise 7.93 per cent.
They expected capital mobilisation of the banking system to increase 16.85 per cent this year, down 0.72 per cent against the previous survey conducted in Q3. With regard to capital mobilisation, while maintaining the expectation on đồng deposit growth of 19.1 per cent, credit institutions lowered their forecast on the US dollar deposit growth, from -0.09 per cent in the Q3 survey to -6.9 per cent in this survey.
According to the central bank, the sharp drop in the US dollar deposit growth expectation shows positive signs in the central bank’s policies to fight dollar speculation in the domestic market and enhance confidence in stability of the US dollar-đồng exchange rate and the value of the đồng.
Under the survey, 87.6 per cent of the surveyed institutions also said that their liquidity for both the đồng and the US dollar is good. Thanks to credit growth and good liquidity, 80 per cent of the surveyed institutions expect their business performance in Q4 and in the whole year to be better than Q3 and last year, respectively.
Optimistic about the performance this year, the institutions increased their forecast on pre-tax profits of the banking system from 7.11 per cent in the Q3 survey to 11.68 per cent in this quarter’s survey. To seize opportunities, the institutions said that in Q4, they have focused on the training of human resources besides enhancing modern and high-tech equipment and infrastructure to better conduct their operations.
