After last year’s Doklam standoff ended, India-China relations seem to have received a fresh change. Two high-level visits from India, by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, followed by the recent trip by Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe to India are raising expectations of a positive change in direction.
Since the Modi-led government came to power, India’s chief concern in its South Asian periphery has been the emergence of Chinese influence. China’s success in earning the confidence of India’s smaller neighbors was largely aided by India’s domineering attitude toward the concerns next door.
India’s hegemonic posture and coercive tactics created deep resentment among the people of those smaller countries. Meanwhile the polarizing environment inside India only aggravated the anxieties among its neighbors, with the result that they had no choice but to embrace China.
China with its huge financial clout started to pour billions of dollars into infrastructure projects in those countries as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). To counter the situation, India resorted to offering aid packages to its neighbors for infrastructure development. However, India’s aid campaign was dwarfed by the Chinese aid as its economy was saddled with a large current-account deficit.
India’s recent bonhomie with the West further complicated its ambitions. The emergence of protectionist trade policy under US President Donald Trump followed by a declaration of a trade war against China, coupled with crippling sanctions against Iran, have pushed India into difficult terrain, not least because of the
Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which is casting shadows over its defense purchases from Russia.
With such a difficult situation, confrontation with Beijing cannot be a desirable choice for New Delhi, so it is looking for avenues for cooperation where there is room for it. Thus Bangladesh shows up on the horizon, where India and China both project significant influence.
India’s inroads into the Bangladeshi realm run deep through politics and culture. Indian points of view on Bangladesh are a subject of serious debate in every walk of Bangladeshi life. The Indian entertainment industry has a large audience in Bangladesh, while the neighboring provinces of India speak similar languages to that country’s tongue. With the Partition of 1947, although the countries got separate maps, many respective citizens have relatives living on either side of the border.
The current Dhaka administration, which began its term in 2008, is generally viewed as pro-Indian, which has gone to significant lengths to eliminate major Indian concerns over security and connectivity to its northeastern states. However, New Delhi’s reserved attitude in addressing Dhaka’s concerns allowed China to present itself as a great strategic partner. Bangladesh’s desire to join the BRI opened the door for China to take part in the developing important infrastructure projects in the country.
