MADRID: The European Commission lowered its estimates of European Union cereal production in the upcoming 2017/18 season, led by a sharp cut to the expected barley crop following a drought in Spain.
Persistent dryness in Spain and elsewhere in western Europe, as well as cold spells in several countries during spring, has prompted other forecasters to scale back their outlook for the EU harvest.
In monthly supply-and-demand data published on Thursday, the Commission reduced its forecast for EU barley usable production in 2017/18 to 59.5 million tonnes, down from 62.4 million tonnes estimated previously. The new barley forecast was close to this season’s 59.6 million tonne crop marked by a poor harvest in France.
Drought in Spain had particularly affected spring barley crops there, the Commission said. The EU’s executive cut its outlook for 2017/18 production of common wheat to 141.3 million tonnes from 141.9 million, but expected a recovery in output from 134.4 million in 2016/17.
Projected EU maize output was lowered to 64.2 million tonnes from 66.5 million although like wheat this would remain above this season’s level, estimated at 60.6 million.
The decrease to the Commission’s harvest forecasts contributed to cuts to projected cereal stocks at the end of 2017/18. Maize stocks saw the sharpest decrease, to 10.2 million tonnes from 13.4 million estimated previously. The EU’s executive kept unchanged its outlook for common wheat exports next season at 28.9 million tonnes, in a recovery from 24 million tonnes expected in 2016/17.
In maize, it lowered expected imports this season to 11.7 million tonnes from 12.3 million, in keeping with the pace of shipments this season. In oilseeds, the Commission reduced its estimate of 2017/18 rapeseed production to 21.9 million tonnes from 22.2 million, but still well above a 2016/17 crop estimated at 19.7 million.
