PERTH: A new study suggests that global warming may increase upwelling in several ocean current systems around the world by the end of this century, especially at high latitudes, and will cause major changes in marine biodiversity.
Since upwelling of colder, nutrient-rich water is a driving force behind marine productivity, one possibility may be enhancement of some of the world’s most important fisheries.
However, solar heating due to greenhouse warming may also increase the persistence of “stratification,” or the horizontal layering of ocean water of different temperatures. The result could be a warm, near-surface layer and a deep, cold layer.
If this happens to a significant extent, it could increase global hypoxic or low-oxygen events, decouple upwelling from the supply of nutrient-rich water, and pose a significant threat to the global function of fisheries and marine ecosystems.
The projected increase in upwelling, in other words, appears clear and definitive. But researchers say its biological impact is far less obvious, which is a significant concern.
These upwelling systems cover less than 2 percent of the ocean surface, but contribute 7 percent to global marine primary production, and 20 percent of global fish catches.
“Our modeling indicates that normally weaker upwelling toward the polar ends of upwelling-dominated regions will strengthen,” said Bruce Menge, the Wayne and Gladys Valley Professor of Marine Biology in the College of Science at Oregon State University, and co-author of the report published Thursday in the journal Nature.
“Ordinarily, you would expect that an increase in upwelling would mean an increase in marine coastal productivity, and that might happen,” Menge said.
“However, a thicker and warmer top later, and more stratified ocean waters may put the cold, nutrient-rich waters too deep for upwelling to bring them up, and reduce the ability of upwelling to energize the coastal ocean food web,” he said. “This could have a very negative impact on marine production and fisheries.”
The findings were made by researchers from OSU and Northeastern University, in work supported by that university and the National Science Foundation.
