The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook report for July, has revised its forecast for economic growth of Pakistan down to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent for 2015. Earlier in April, the fund had projected the growth rate at 2.9 percent for 2015 and 3.8 percent for 2016. According to experts, 0.3 percent is not a big damage in the economic growth, but 2.9 percent itself is not an ambitious growth rate, especially when other economies in the region are recording over 7 percent annual growth. The overall forecast for the global economic growth for this year is also dismal in the backdrop of weakness in the US economy. On another note, the recent volatility in Chinese financial markets and Greece’s debt crisis may have little impact on the overall growth on the global level.
According to the IMF, the global economy should expand by 3.3 percent this year, 0.2 percentage point below what was predicted in April while the growth should speed up to 3.8 percent next year. It says that various factors, including weather conditions, are expected to have negative impact on the US economy. Its effects will reverberate on global economy. The IMF expects that the US economy will grow by 2.5 percent this year, revising its earlier forecast in which it projected growth rate at 3.1 percent and that the US economic sluggishness has spilled over to Canada and Mexico. The fund also maintained its forecasts for a pickup in growth in the euro zone despite the fact the Greece is moving closer to the edge of default and an exit from the currency bloc as it is desperately looking for a third bailout package from G8 countries.
The present government has consumed almost half of its tenure without any significant development on trade and industrial sectors and it has failed to bring any visible change in the people’s lives. Energy crisis, trade deficits, balances of payment problem and all other economic and social indicators are disappointing. The growth in trade and industry, whatever so far has been achieved, is depending upon the individual efforts rather than the outcome of any government policy. The government is taking wholesale loans from the IMF and other donor agencies without realizing the risks involved in it. There is no dearth of talent in Pakistan, but every successive government is unable to properly utilize it. It is unfortunate that despite all the positive indicators, the government has failed to improve economy.
