NEW YORK: Imports through major U.S. container gateways are expected to post a year-over-year increase of 8 percent in April as West Coast ports continue to chip away at cargo backlogs, the latest Global Port Tracker reported.
“Progress is being made but there’s still a lot of cargo waiting to be loaded onto trucks and trains and moved across the country even after it’s unloaded from the ships,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. “The situation is getting better but we’re still far from normal.”
Year-over-year percentage increases are expected to slow during the next few months, said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produces Port Tracker for the NRF. He said supply chains are returning to normal after West Coast delays that reached crisis levels amid labor slowdowns during longshore contract negotiations.
Volume in February, the latest month for which actual figures are available, slipped 3.6 percent year-over-year to 1.2 million 20-foot-equivalent units. March volume was estimated at nearly 1.5 million 20-foot-equivalent units, a 13.5 percent increase.
Port Tracker forecasts that the 12 major ports it tracks will finish 2015 with 3.4 percent growth in imports. West Coast volume is forecast to rise 3 percent, to 12.05 million TEUs. The East Coast forecast is 7.6 million TEUs, a 3.8 percent increase.
JOC Economist Mario O. Moreno forecasts 2 percent growth this year in import TEUs for all U.S. ports, including those not included in the Port Tracker numbers. His latest forecast calls for a 4 percent decline in exports.
Hackett said Port Tracker’s forecast assumes consumer demand holds steady. He noted that Brazil and China are posting weaker-than-anticipated economic numbers, and that the shift of U.S. domestic production overseas has run its course.
“The days of double-digit growth (in import volume) appear to be some way behind us,” he said.
April volume is forecast at 1.55 million TEUs, up 8 percent from last year; May at 1.57 million TEUs, up 5.6 percent; June at 1.54 million TEUs, up 4.3 percent; July at 1.58 million TEUs, up 5.6 percent, and August at 1.61 million TEUs, up 5.7 percent.
The first half of 2015 is forecast at 8.6 million TEU, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier.
Port Tracker covers the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
