NEW DELHI: India’s economic growth is likely to slow or at best stabilise in the next financial year ending in March 2017, according to government summaries of the latest annual economic survey released on Friday.
The document, prepared by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, says gross domestic product is expected to expand by 7-7.75 per cent in the coming year, compared with official forecasts of 7.6 per cent in the year ending March 31 2016, and 7.2 per cent the previous year.
Official figures show India has overtaken China to become the world’s fastest-growing large economy, although economists say some industrial and business indicators suggest a less robust performance. They have questioned both the output data and the deflators used to convert nominal growth into real growth.
The survey says India has the potential to grow at 8-10 per cent a year in the longer term — matching the performance of east Asia’s “tigers” in previous decades. But that would require the country to abandon its reflexive hostility to markets, invest heavily in health and education and focus more on agriculture.
Arun Jaitley, finance minister, is due to present his annual budget on Monday, amid disagreements among policymakers over whether to abandon deficit reduction targets to give the economy a boost.
