JAKARTA: Given the ongoing crisis in global economy and the decreasing value of the nation’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, Indonesia’s growth was estimated to reach 4.8 percent at its best this year with 5 percent was expected for next year, an Indonesian economist said here on Monday.
The estimation figure was lower from the government’s target at 5.2 and 5.5 percent for this year and next year respectively.
“The ultimate contributors to the nation’s growth this year were domestic consumption and investment,” senior economist of Mandiri Institute Andry Asmoro said.
The depreciation of national currency rupiah would not significantly boost the nation’s export like it was highly expected by the government, he said.
Indonesia saw 17 years low of the nation’s exchange rate value against U.S. dollar which now has reached over 14,500 per 1 U.S. dollar.
Indonesia should have been able to take advantage from the depreciation of rupiah to boost its export value, but it failed as the nation’s export was very much depended on commodities, Andry said.
“So the rupiah depreciation would not boost the export which is dominated by commodities whose prices continue to decrease lately. Export improvement would not persist this year,” he said.
Similar thoughts on the nation’s gloomy exports was also expressed by Trade Minister Thomas Lembong last week even though Indonesia booked 433.8 million U.S. dollars of surplus in August this year.
The minister’s doubt was based on the sluggish global trade growth which was lower than the global economy growth in the last few years.
President Joko Widodo told legislators last month that the government has revised its growth target for next year to 5.5 percent, or lower than 5.7 percent initially set in the state budget, due to the development of external and internal conditions.
