BAGHDAD: Iraq’s southern oil exports have risen more than 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) so far in November, according to loading data and an industry source, bringing shipments from OPEC’s second-largest producer back towards a monthly record.
The increase, after bad weather slowed shipments in October, is an indication of continued high output from major members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which looks set to keep policy steady at a meeting next week.
Exports from Iraq’s southern terminals have averaged 3.05 million bpd in the first 24 days of this month, up from 2.70 million bpd in October. If sustained, that would beat the existing record high of 3.064 million bpd reached in July.
The southern fields produce most of Iraq’s oil.
The growth follows investment by Western oil companies in the oilfields and an easing of export bottlenecks, although the pace of expansion is expected to slow in 2016.
“We see a continuation of current levels, which means there will be no repeat of the increase seen this year,” said Eugene Lindell, oil analyst at JBC Energy in Vienna.
Southern exports had reached 3.1 million bpd for most of October, although bad weather that prevented tankers from loading in the last few days of the month brought the average down.
Shipments from Iraq’s north via Ceyhan in Turkey have risen this year despite tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government over budget payments.
Independent KRG exports have averaged 570,000 bpd in the first 24 days of November according to loading data, down from 595,000 bpd in October, while Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation has exported no northern crude for a second month.
Baghdad is hoping to raise southern exports further next year to as much as 3.2 million bpd, a senior Iraqi oil source said last month, pointing to slower growth than in 2015.
