TOKYO: Japan’s exports were expected to fall for a second straight month in November, a Reuters poll found, which would swing the trade balance back into deficit, showing sluggish overseas demand holding back economic recovery.
Exports were expected to dip 1.5 per cent in November from a year earlier, falling for a second straight month, the poll of 20 analysts showed. In October, exports fell for the first time since August 2014.
Imports were seen likely to drop an annual 8.3 per cent, down for the 11th month in a row, producing a trade deficit of 446.2 billion yen ($3.66 billion) after a revised 108.3 billion yen surplus last month.
“China’s economic slowdown is spreading to other Asian nations and I expect Japan’s exports will stay weak for a while,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
“But oil prices have fallen further recently, so the value of imports will likely shrink, which will help improve the trade balance.” Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, forecasts exports will likely pick up in the first quarter next year.
“I think exports are escaping from the worst period,” he said. “A sharp deterioration in China’s economic slowdown seems to have eased. I expect Japan’s exports will recover early next year.” The finance ministry will release the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Dec. 17. (2350 GMT Dec. 16)
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan business confidence survey due on Monday is expected to show business confidence receded slightly in the three months to December. The economy dodged recession in the third quarter after initial GDP growth estimates were revised up.
