DUBLIN: An estimated 97% of heroin being trafficked into Ireland is getting through undetected, according to a major report by the United Nations.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that 958kg of pure heroin is imported into the country, on average, every year.
It said only 27.5kg (3%), on average, is seized, that 931kg is consumed and heroin gangs are earning an estimated €600m a year from the trade.
A leading Irish expert said the research had “profound implications” for drug laws, but didn’t think the figures were quite as high as stated.
Johnny Connolly said Ireland’s seizure rate was closer to 4%-5%, that around 550kg-660kg of pure heroin was consumed here and that profit levels were about half the UN estimate of €600m.
Senior gardaí said there was there was “no way” of knowing how much heroin was coming in or what percentage they seized — and completely rejected the profit estimates.
The study, ‘Drug Money: The Illicit Proceeds of Opiates trafficked on the Balkan Route’, is one of the first of its type.
Examining the heroin trade using statistics between 2009 and 2012, its “best estimate” of Ireland’s interception rate was 2.9% — compared to an average of 5% for western and central Europe.
It said the Netherlands was the main trafficking source of heroin for Ireland, accounting for 464kg, followed by Belgium (133kg) and a range of other countries (362kg).
Ireland’s interception rate compares to 4.8% in Britain, 2.2% in Germany, 3.2% in France, 2.3% in Denmark, 3.9% in Portugal, 2.2% in Austria, 4.2% in Belgium, and 6.4% in the Netherlands.
“Studies like this are really important,” said Dr Connolly, a criminologist and drugs researcher at the School of Social Policy at Trinity College Dublin.
“If we are trying to get to grips with drug laws, we have to analyse the market, from production to retail, and this is what this study has done in relation to heroin. It is very difficult work to do and huge resources have gone into the report, but it is just the beginning.
“This study has profound implications for the whole concept of supply control. You have to ask what does supply control achieve?”
The UN study used 29 estimates of how much heroin users take to provide a yearly average consumption level of 44g of pure heroin, or 0.12g a day.
Dr Connolly said that, based on his research, the average user in Ireland consumes approximately between 0.3g and 0.5g of street heroin a day, which translates to roughly between 0.1g and 0.12g of pure heroin a day — similar to the UN estimate.
The UN study estimated there were 21,000 heroin users in Ireland, based on previous Irish research.
Dr Connolly said experts believed that figure was “inflated” and he estimated the figure was closer to 15,000.
He said this would mean a yearly total consumption of 547kg-657kg of pure heroin — and an interception rate of between 4% and 4.8%.
“I would say this is more accurate,” he said. “At the same time, we are not really talking about a huge difference. Law enforcement often use the 10% figure, so really we are quibbling between 3% and 5%.”
A senior garda said: “It’s impossible to say how much is coming in. I can tell you what we’ve seized, but estimates that only 3% or 10% of the total are seized are speculative.”
He rejected the profit levels: “No, all day no. Mad. It’s certainly not €600m.”
Dr Connolly said the profit levels were “too high”. Based on an approximate €60 daily spend for the average heroin user, he suggests a market value of around €320m.
