SEOUL: South Korea’s exports will likely expand next year, marking a turnaround from two consecutive years of drop, though its trade surplus is expected to shrink due to fast growing imports, a report suggested Monday. According to the report from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), the country’s outbound shipments are expected to reach $516.5 billion in 2017, up 3.9 percent from an estimated $497 billion this year. The anticipated increase will mark the first on-year gain since 2014 when the country’s exports rose 2.4 percent from the previous year. Outbound shipments plunged 8 percent on-year in 2015. In the first 10 months of this year, exports again dwindled 8 percent to $405.1 billion.
KITA apparently predicted some improvement during the remainder of the year, insisting the country’s annual export volume will reach $497 billion in 2016, marking a 5.6-percent drop from last year.
The report noted South Korean and global trade conditions will largely be influenced by three main factors — low growth, uncertainty and trade protectionism — in 2017. “A possible change in US policies under the new US administration, along with possible US rate hikes, China’s stepped up restructuring efforts and Britain’s exit from the European Union may expand global uncertainties that can further weigh down on newly emerging markets and the global economy,” it said.
Still, the report insisted South Korea’s own exports will likely grow next year, partly on an anticipated recovery of global oil prices, also predicting outbound shipments of petrochemical products to jump 11.9 percent on-year to $39.9 billion in 2017, with shipments of petroleum products growing 6.9 percent to some $27 billion. Exports of ships, on the other hand, are expected to slip 1.6 percent on-year to some $36 billion, following an estimated 8.7 percent drop this year, it added. In 2017, the country’s trade surplus is expected to reach $83 billion, down from an estimated $93 billion this year, with imports expected to grow 7.3 percent on-year to $433.5 billion next year.
