HANOI: Foreseeing a recovering global economy, the Commerce Ministry projects that Thai exports will emerge from their slump and grow by 5 per cent next year, thanks largely to trade with emerging markets.
For this year, the ministry has projected that export value will decline by 3 per cent to US$220.69 billion (Bt7.78 trillion). This assumption is based on the expected average value of the baht at 35 against the US dollar, average Dubai oil price for the whole year at $60 per barrel, and crop prices 10 per cent lower than in 2014.
A senior ministry source said export value next year should grow by at least 5 per cent as there were clearer signs of economic recoveries in many markets, particularly the United States, and stronger growth of emerging markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
However, there are still some worrying factors, mainly slower growth by China, few signs of a recovery in the European Union, currency wars around the globe, and low prices of agricultural products and commodities.
The source said Thailand’s exclusion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership could also affect the country’s exports to certain markets next year. The government needs to study whether the Kingdom should join the TPP, while it waits for the pact’s 12 current member states to ratify the controversial deal. Under a strategy to drive export growth next year, the ministry will focus on penetrating new markets.
Targeted markets are members of Asean, especially Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, as well as China, South Asia, and the Middle East, particularly Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The ministry will also adapt its marketing plan to focus more on modern trading channels, e-commerce, home shopping, pop-up stores, and border trade.
Targeted consumer groups will include the elderly, people highly concerned with healthcare, and the upper-income market with strong purchasing power and more concern about quality goods than| pricing.
