BERN: Research firm Natixis have revised the central oil prices down once again in tune with current macroeconomic environment and unbalanced fundamentals. For Brent Natixis expect 2015Q3 and 2015Q4 to average $60/bbl and $59/bbl respectively and 2016Q1 to average $57/bbl. Average for 2015 and 2016 will be $59.2/bbl and $62.3/bbl respectively.
Natixis expect WTI to trade at a discount of $4-6/bbl to Brent, with 2016Q1 spreads being the widest as Cushing stockpiling will start from a much higher base.In their low case scenario, Natixis expect Brent to average $56.7/bbl in 2015 and $57.3/bbl in 2016. They maintained a low case scenario in the event of Iranian oil returning to the market.
Natixis have maintained a bearish scenario for the last couple of months on weakness in physical balances. This week’s IEA and OPEC forecasts reinforce this view of poor fundamentals. In their July reports both OPEC and IEA lowered their call on OPEC for 2015 from their June reports with OPEC at 29.22mn b/d and IEA at 29.37mn b/d.