OSLO: Just as there are differences in their economic outlooks, interest-rate projections also vary across the Nordic countries. Denmark appears to be on track for a minor unilateral rate hike from its central bank (Danmarks Nationalbank) to slow the fall in the currency reserve, which has dropped back to the level prior to the major currency inflow in the opening months of 2015.
The Riksbank is fighting to prevent inflation expectations in Sweden becoming anchored at record low levels, which could prompt another rate cut in 2016. A rate cut is not going to calm concerns about sharply rising Swedish house prices. A downturn in house prices is a clear risk to the economy in the coming years, but as we see, this is unlikely to happen in the short term if rates remain low.
Norges Bank also stands ready to act if the slowdown in the oil sector hamper Norway’s growth. Lower interest rates are one of the options Norges Bank still has available to stimulate Norway’s economy. Lower rates will help offset the risk of the low oil price triggering a crisis that includes sharply falling house prices which constitutes a major risk to the Norwegian economy.
