OSLO: The opening of the Chinese market to Norwegian salmon again could mean an estimated 30,000 metric tons of sales in a few years’ time, Norwegian bank DNB estimates.
Norwegian fisheries minister Per Sandberg has recently signed an agreement on the recommencing of seafood trade with China.
“Imports of salmon to China have, despite an import ban on Norway, grown by 16% CAGR [compound annual growth rate] over the past six years,” noted Alexander Aukner, seafood analyst with DNB, during a DNB and Fish Pool-hosted seminar before the Brussels Seafood Expo Global.
In value terms this growth has been 27% CAGR between 2010-2016. In the vacuum left by Chile and the Faroe Islands filled the gap (see table below).
“With the reopening of Norwegian salmon imports, the market should be able to grow faster and Norway could regain a stronger foothold in the Chinese market.”
DNB estimates that by 2019, Norway can up its market share of salmon sales to China from 2% (in 2016) to 50%. In 2017 DNB believes Norway can up its market share to 25%, and in doing so grow by over 1,000%.
This would mean growing exports to China to over 10,000t in 2017; almost 18,000t in 2018; and to over 32,000t in 2019.
Seafood trade between China and Norway could normalize in some months, perhaps during the coming summer, according to Sigmund Bjorgo, China director of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
